Carrier Selection and Elimination

In some ways, selecting a cellular carrier, equipment, and rate plan, is more complicated than buying an automobile. At least with a vehicle, the performance does not vary a lot based on your geographic location. In other ways, it is quite simple to select a carrier if you know the pros and cons of each one.

Prior to even checking rates and coverage you can usually eliminate several carriers from consideration based on their technology and capabilities (see table below, green is good, red is bad, yellow is in the middle).

Technology (CDMA versus GSM) DOES Matter
There has been much debate over the various wireless technology standards and which is best. The U.S. will soon have only two digital standards, CDMA and GSM. I am technology neutral; I'll choose the best provider regardless of the technology. That said, CDMA provides overwhelming advantages over GSM in the U.S., hence, the carriers that have adopted CDMA have an overwhelming advantage over those that have adopted GSM.

1. CDMA needs fewer sites to cover a given area than GSM, even GSM at 800 Mhz (all Bay Area GSM is at the less desirable 1900 Mhz).

2. CDMA is much better at preventing dropped calls during heavy network congestion, at the expense of reduced voice quality as congestion increases.

3. The major CDMA carriers provide AMPS capability in many of their handsets, greatly extending coverage in rural areas, almost no GSM handset have this capability

4. The CDMA networks are far more developed than the GSM networks, though over time GSM will catch up

5. Except for Sprint, most of the CDMA networks in the U.S. operate at the more desirable 800 Mhz, which increases the range of each cell and provides better indoor signal penetration.

6. The TDMA carriers that have overlayed 1900 Mhz GSM onto their 800 Mhz TDMA sites have left big coverage gaps due to the problems inherent with 1900 Mhz PCS.

Some GSM advocates are fond of pointing out how pervasive GSM is in Europe and Asia, and how well it works. This is all true, but irrelevant. GSM in Europe and Asia is mostly at 900 Mhz which provides the same advantages that 800 Mhz provides in the U.S.. Europe and Asia are densely populated without the vast open spaces of the U.S.. The GSM infrastructure in Europe has been built up for over a decade, while in the U.S. GSM is relatively new.

800 Mhz is Best
When analog cellular service (AMPS) first began, the FCC licensed two carriers in each geographic area. They divided the spectrum into "A side" and "B side," with the incumbent wireline provider getting the B side and another provider getting the A side. In the San Francisco Bay Area the original carriers were GTE Mobilnet and PacTel Cellular (Pacific Telesis), see drawing below. You can read the complicated history of mergers, acquisitions, and branding at: http://writing.deblauwe.org/bavag.pdf, but as of today, the two 800 Mhz carriers for California's metropolitan areas are Verizon Wireless and AT&T Wireless (AT&T Wireless is a separate company from AT&T). These carriers have a tremendous advantage over the newer, 1900 Mhz, carriers like Cingular (in California), T-Mobile, & Sprint, for two reasons. First, they have been around the longest and have had much more time to build out their infrastructure. Second, the 800 Mhz spectrum is much better suited for wireless communications; it requires less cell sites, and it penetrates structures much better than 1900 Mhz.

Evolution of the Two Major 800 Mhz Carriers in California
A Side* (present)		PacTel Cellular 1984 (Pacific Telesis) [B Side]		AirTouch (Independent) 1994 [B Side]		Vodafone AirTouch (Vodafone buys Airtouch) 1999 [B Side]		Cellular One (AT&T Wireless + Vodafone AirTouch) 1999 [B Side]		AT&T Wireless 2000 [A Side]
							Vodafone AirTouch drops out of Cellular One branding, becomes part of newly formed Verizon
B Side* (present)		GTE Mobilnet 1987 [A Side]				GTE Wireless 1997 (bought by Bell Atlantic in 1999) [A Side]				Verizon (Bell Atlantic, GTE + Vodafone AirTouch) 2000 [B Side]
* The B side was reserved for the 'local' wireline carrier to branch out into cellular. Verizon is now the B side in California as a result of AirTouch originally being part of Pacific Telesis, the local wireline carrier. In some areas, Verizon is the A side carrier.

CDMA is Best, Especially in Densely Populated Urban Areas
I created a comparison of capacity issues versus technology (raw data from the Consumer Reports February 2003 survey). The results surprised even me!

No CDMA carrier, in any city, was below average. No iDEN, GSM, or TDMA carrier, in any city, was above average. Clearly, at this time, CDMA is providing an advantage in terms of capacity in densely populated urban areas. Remember, this table is NOT about coverage, it's about the dreaded "System Busy" or "All Circuits Full" recording.

All things being Equal, the Best Carriers in Terms of Coverage are AT&T Wireless (TDMA, not GSM) and Verizon (CDMA)
It is not surprising that the two most highly rated carriers in California are always AT&T Wireless and Verizon; they enjoy a compelling and literally insurmountable advantage over the other carriers by virtue of their desirable 800 Mhz spectrum. All things being equal, you don't want to choose a carrier that operates at the 1900 Mhz PCS frequency because in-building reception, especially in box buildings such as large retailers, hospitals, malls, etc., is worse at 1900 Mhz. This eliminates AT&T's GSM service, Cingular, MetroPCS, Sprint, and T-Mobile, leaving only AT&T's TDMA service, Nextel's iDEN service, and Verizon's CDMA service. 1900Mhz  carriers will try to  make you believe that the difference is exaggerated, and if they are looking only at single family homes and non-box-like big buildings then they are correct. The big difference comes when you are deep inside a Costco, Home Depot, or similar sort of store and are not very close to a 1900 Mhz cell. It takes many more cell sites to provide the same coverage area at 1900 Mhz than at 800 Mhz.

All Things are Not Equal ≠
While the 1900 Mhz carriers are inferior in terms of coverage, technology and/or capabilities they each have some attraction. On GSM carriers you can roam internationally in most of Europe and a lot of Asia (not Japan, Korea, and parts of China). Sprint PCS offers very attractively priced un-metered data services (if you figure out how to cable your phone to your PC rather than using a CardBus card). MetroPCS offers un-metered local voice service for $35 per month. SBC is bundling home phone service, with its Cingular Wireless service and DSL service, at attractive prices. Even though Nextel is an 800 Mhz carrier, they don't make any pretensions about trying to compete in terms of coverage with the other carriers.

AMPS is Ubiquitous; Don't Choose a Carrier (or a handset) that Doesn't Include AMPS Capability!
No weasel words here, don't go with a carrier that doesn't provide at least the capability to use the old 800 Mhz AMPS network, and be certain that the handset you select includes AMPS capability as there are many CDMA phones without AMPS capability being offered.

This advice is echoed by Consumer Reports who recommends cell phone users purchase a phone with digital and AMPS capability. AMPS Major national carriers that provide AMPS backup are AT&T Wireless, Cingular, Sprit PCS and Verizon Wireless*.

*Note that not every phone from these carriers has AMPS capability, and Cingular does not offer AMPS  in all regions. AT&T offers only one handset, the Sony-Ericsson T62u, that has AMPS capability for use on its "Next Generation" GSM network (though most of its TDMA phones have analog capability). Cingular in California offers no handsets with AMPS capability. Verizon and Sprint offer several handset models with AMPS capability, but also offer several models that lack this essential feature. T-Mobile does not offer analog capability at all.

There are vast areas of the U.S. (i.e. much of Alaska) that are covered only by AMPS (and that will continue to be covered only by AMPS into the foreseeable future due to sparse population and the expense of installing digital service which requires many more towers than AMPS)). Even in California, there are many areas that only have AMPS coverage, i.e. inside Yosemite you can get fair AMPS coverage from sites located outside the park, but there is no digital coverage of any kind.

AMPS is used for roadside call boxes and for GM's On-Star system. Both of these systems will need to transition to digital systems before AMPS starts to be turned off.

The desirability of AMPS capability eliminates Nextel and all the GSM carriers. Someday AMPS will no longer be needed, but that day is at least a decade away.

The 800 Mhz cellular carriers will be permitted to turn off their AMPS service in 2008 (unless the FCC extends the deadline again--it originally was 2007). This means that in areas with digital coverage the carriers will likely choose to discontinue AMPS service, but in areas without digital coverage they will likely choose to continue AMPS service.

One disturbing trend is the elimination of AMPS capability on some handsets. The following table will help you avoid purchasing a handset that does not have AMPS capability.

Phones With and Without AMPS Capability

Carrier Evaluations (based on technology & spectrum used in the Bay Area)

Not surprisingly, AT&T TDMA and Verizon CDMA are the highest rated services by every independent, non-profit, entity. These two carriers have the most towers and they have the more desirable 800 Mhz spectrum in most markets, including the Bay Area. The February 2003 issue of Consumer Reports stated that in its survey of about 22,000 magazine subscribers that Verizon was top ranked in all six cities they surveyed, including San Francisco.  The same article also reported that AT&T and Verizon were the most expensive carriers.

Deciding between AT&T TDMA and Verizon CDMA depends on your personal needs and how strong the signal is at the places most important to you. There are no data services available on TDMA and the selection of TDMA phones is not very good because TDMA is being phased out by both AT&T and Cingular. But for voice only TDMA is fine, coverage is very good, and there is a sufficient selection of TDMA phones available. Verizon is more expensive than AT&T but has some coverage advantages in outlying areas, and some roaming advantages because most smaller, independent carriers have gone from AMPS to CDMA rather than from AMPS to TDMA or GSM (AT&T's affiliates, generally mid-size carriers, have all had to move to GSM). You have 15-30 days of so after you sign up to determine if the service is adequate. You may even want to sign up for both Verizon CDMA and AT&T TDMA at the same time and then keep the better service, canceling the poorer service within the carrier's cancellation period. Be aware that TDMA coverage will start to decline as Cingular shuts down their TDMA service to make more room for GSM, and that eventually AT&T will also shut down TDMA.

Long Term Outlook
Long-term, AT&T and Cingular will be re-deploying their 800 Mhz spectrum from AMPS & TDMA to GSM (this does not apply to Cingular in California which has no 800 Mhz spectrum in the state). There are already phones being sold that will operate at both 800 Mhz GSM and 1900 Mhz GSM. If AT&T and Cingular deploy true 3G (W-CDMA) they will have to have separate spectrum for voice and data, so perhaps at that time they will put the data services at 1900 Mhz (since there is more bandwidth at 1900 Mhz and 3G data will require more bandwidth than voice) and move all the voice down to the more desirable 800 Mhz spectrum. AMPS may no longer be available in urban areas (though one of the two AMPS carriers is likely to continue service), and TDMA will disappear completely. AMPS will likely continue to be the only service offered in rural areas because the infrastructure is already in place, the demand is low, and AMPS requires far fewer sites for coverage (so there will be a need for a GSM/AMPS phone). The real losers, long-term, will be the carriers that do not have any 800 Mhz spectrum, such as Sprint, T-Mobile, and Cingular (California). The future of Nextel is unclear. There are predictions that they will abandon iDEN and move to CDMA, but this is only speculation.

Nextel is a special case. Nextel's niche is their 2-way radio, Push to Talk^TM  service; it is rather unfair to compare Nextel to other carriers since Nextel is not trying to provide the same sort of ubiquitous nationwide coverage as the other national carriers. However over the past year I've received several e-mails inquiring as to why Nextel was not included, so I gave in and added them.